Why We Live in Unprecedented Times (After All)

Here are some uncommon ideas about history that have been on my mind lately. Maybe you will find them interesting.

I.

When it comes to history, we are as entitled as we can be. We think of ourselves as the latest and the best. All that came before us were simple-minded.

Just look at how condescendingly we talk about the ancients:

"These weird Romans who induced vomiting at banquets, so they could keep eating."

"These medieval simpletons who believed the earth was a disc."

"These strange Baroque men who wore wigs."

We might admit this arrogance to ourselves or not, but it doesn't matter. Deep down, we think that everybody born before us was not as enlightened as we are.

II.

This fallacy has of course always been around, but it was turned into a system of thought by the German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel.

Hegel believed that history is a process of unfolding. The "Objective Spirit" comes more and more into its own, the longer the story goes on. In his own words: "World history is progress in the consciousness of freedom."

Or, put very simply — things get better over time. We are nearing a great, glorious finale. Yay!

III.

About 100 years later, another German philosopher, Oswald Spengler, went the opposite direction. He postulated that history is cyclical.

In Spengler's view, the lifecycle of a culture is akin to that of a plant. It emerges as a little seedling in spring, then comes into full fruition during summer, and starts to decay in fall, before it dies off in winter.

Then another, new culture emerges and takes the spot of the previous high culture. But in essence, it goes through the same cycle. Those involved might of themselves as special snowflakes, but in truth, they are just another iteration.

IV.

In cultural terms, I have always believed that Spengler was right and that Hegel was wrong. Get off your high horse. We are not even a tiny bit wiser than the ancient Egyptians, the Chinese, or the Greeks. Read them, and you might very well discover that we are the simpletons.

However, when it comes to one particular aspect, Hegel might have been right after all — and that is technology.

For 300,000 years, we lived as hunter-gatherers, and technologically speaking, nothing much happened.

But then, about 10,000 years ago, the agricultural revolution took place. And since then, it has been one mind-blowing innovation after another. And I am not just talking about the last 250 years (that is our self-centeredness again). Innovation started long before factories and computers. It started with philosophy and the scientific method.

V.

What has me both excited and scared is that we are nearing an intersection that, to my knowledge, has never occurred before.

Our current cultural cycle ("the West" or what Spengler calls the Faustian age) is coming to an end. No biggie. That has happened multiple times before.

However, at the same time, the Hegelian-technological upward trend is also approaching a strange, unprecedented climax. Through technology, we are now entering a phase that resembles our pre-technological lifestyle in many ways:

We are no longer bound to a certain location anymore. We can roam the planet like our nomadic ancestors, working from our laptops.

The institution of marriage is dissolving. Like tribesmen, we get together for a short while and then move on to a new partner. Sometimes, we openly juggle partners (non-monogamy).

Minimalism has become a mass phenomenon. Like our nomadic ancestors, we can't be weighed down by too much physical stuff. It inhibits mobility.

VI.

It seems to me that the Hegelian "telos" will soon be reached, albeit a technological one. And as I said, it will coincide with the end of the current Spenglerian cycle.

In this sense, we are indeed living in unprecedented times. These two movements coinciding — the linear and the cyclical model — that is a true historic first.

Where does this leave us?

If you are a yeasayer, you will believe that all our problems will soon be solved. Paradise on earth.

If you are a naysayer, you will believe that extinction is imminent. Get your bunker ready.

I tend to fall in the middle. Within the next 50–200 years or so, things are going to get shaken up like never before. These two historical vectors colliding will cause both absolute havoc as well as create fabulous opportunities. It will be glorious, and it will be heart-wrenching.

Okay, that is as vague a prediction as I ever made in this newsletter. I promise more down-to-earth advice in the next issue.

Speaking of down to earth, I am flying back to very sober Germany on April 10th. If you are in Europe or the US and would like to do coaching with me, that will simplify the time zone issue. My subtle attempt at self-marketing for today.

Until next week,

Niels